CACAO PRODUCTION IN THE PHILIPPINES FROM 1990-2012

Abstract

Cacao (Theobroma cacao) is an important source of income for thousands of small holder farmers and could help reduce the poverty incidence in the rural areas. This paper analyzed the status of the cacao industry in the Philippines for the periods from 1990 to 2012 using a surrogate measure of data roughness through fractal dimensions. Fractal dimensions as statistical quantities are robust measures which are not easily influenced by extreme observations unlike other variance-based productivity measures of any crop. The results revealed that there is a high ruggedness in the area planted, yield and the number of fruit bearing trees in a decreasing trend. The price of cacao on the other hand is highly fragmented and is increasing every year. For 22 years, the cacao industry is technically volatile but market feasible. The observed variability can be attributed by some indicators such as climate change and the negative attitude toward producing cacao.