BOMBINGS AND VIOLENCE ON MINDANAO: A FRACTAL ANALYSIS

Abstract

Spatio-temporal data obtained from 1980 to 2013 on the incidence of bombings in Mindanao were subjected to fractal analysis. The inter-bombing times were analyzed through a multi-fractal formalism introduced by Padua (2012) while the spatial data were plotted as points on the map of Mindanao. Results revealed that there is a substantial, albeit, geometric escalation of terrorist attacks through bombings in the last fifteen (15) years. In terms of the inter-event times, fractal analysis showed that the time intervals between bombings are getting shorter (from the previous 6 months to as short as 1 day). Geometric fractal analysis similarly revealed that bombings are targeted to sustain maximum damage in areas defined by triangles whose vertices are found in Davao City, Zamboanga City, Jolo/Sulu/Basilan, Cotabato, Lanao and General Santos City. Relative roughness analysis also demonstrated a 200% increase or double the number of bombings in the period 2000-2013 as compared to the two decades covered in the period 1980-1999. The forces that shape the fractal dimension of hostilities and bombing incidents in the last fifteen years are discussed in the paper.